#35 | Strength & Acceleration
Bitcoin is showing substantial relative strength and possible vertical acceleration. Altcoins are waiting for BTC's next move.
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Issue #35 overview:
Bitcoin shows off serious muscle
Altcoins are about to arrive to the party later than expected
A Bitcoin supercycle?
The impact of spot BTC ETFs on supply
Updates on the DXY, S&P 500, and Gold
Wave watch outlines the finale in ETH and XRP
Last month’s indecision in Bitcoin led to strong upside continuation and a large white candlestick for February’s monthly, as given last issue as one of two outcomes to watch for. With February half-done, Bitcoin must maintain this strength and confirm to the world that a bull market has begun.
The trend is on the cusp of accelerating higher. The upper boundary of an uptrend channel that’s been building steam since the start of 2023 is being tested as resistance. Rejection is still possible, but instead, Bitcoin appears poised for a more substantial vertical move.
Uptrends, no matter how minor or major, appear to start off this way historically. The bottom of the channel is prone to devastating deviations, but the sideways consolidation always has broken upward ultimately.
If we get the push higher, a string of large white candles should appear over the next 3-6 months, possibly longer. Any wicks on the top of candlesticks and or the appearance of Doji candles are a warning sign the trend is waning.
Despite the only-up style environment that could unfold in the coming months, it won’t be an easy ride. The 1M Bollinger Bands are only just beginning to expand, Band Width only just began to rise, and %B is at overbought levels — which is a sign of strength historically.
Confusingly, overbought conditions in crypto aren’t as negative as one would think. Yes, it tells us the market is frothy the more overbought the RSI gets. However, overbought on high timeframes means substantial buying pressure. Previously, reaching above 70 on the 1M brings Bitcoin to each cycle conclusion — but at current levels there is still plenty of room to climb higher. I’m estimating a 250-350% rise from here in BTCUSD before we see a final peak.
For paid subscribers, the Wave Watch section has essentially given a blueprint for the last year plus of bull market in Bitcoin. If the primary wave count continues to be valid, BTCUSD is entering the phase where a bullish trend becomes undeniable. If accurate, pullbacks will be shallow, and price will cruise upward with little resistance in the way. The moment the market gets used to this behavior, a devastating shakeout will give us sub-wave 4 and conclude the impulse phase.
With Bitcoin, the bellwether crypto asset, now above $50,000, it is priced out of reach for the average retail investor. Whether you like it or not, BTC is officially for the wealthy and institutions. Sure you can buy a fraction of a coin — and you should — but the average person just hearing about Bitcoin’s gains isn’t going to want 0.03 of something when they can buy 1 ETH or 2000 XRP. Retail is taking a lot longer to take the bait this time around, but this should only add to the FOMO when it comes.
And it could be here soon, according to my customized Ichimoku setup on the Total Crypto Market Cap chart. TOTAL is leaving the Ichimoku Cloud after consolidating within it — exactly the same setup as right before the last altcoin season.
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