#45 | Dangling Dollar
Will the DXY finally lose support and send risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum higher?
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Issue #45 overview:
Key levels for Bitcoin to close above in May
Bitcoin better compared with 2017 bull market, not 2020
Ethereum stronger than BTC: What this means
Bitcoin Dominance takes a pause: Will it break down?
An alternate bearish wave count that makes for a bloody June
Important macro signals that could impact the fate of crypto
Will the dollar continue its downtrend and let risk assets rally higher?
A guide on using the Trend Wrangler – a technical indicator available to premium subscribers.
Bitcoin continues to range sideways, bringing extreme boredom to the crypto market. Watching sentiment over the last year or more, boredom appears to be worse to market participants than bearish price action. As such, the tone is negative despite Bitcoin being in a clear uptrend. With the halving behind us, and ETFs approaching 1M BTC accumulated, price action should resolve to the upside eventually.
At this point in Bitcoin’s bull run, comparisons to 2020/2021 should be thrown out entirely. BTC simply isn’t moving as fast or at the same angle as the most recent bull market. As such, I am more focused on the corrective behavior from 2017. Comparing today with 2017, if the low is in, Bitcoin might be ready to make its final advance higher.
What we’d need to see is the daily RSI get back above 70 and into the bull zone. When this happened in 2017, Bitcoin climbed from around $2,000 to almost $20,000 per coin. While I don’t expect another 10x, I do think Bitcoin will at least 2x and at almost $70,000 per coin, this would take BTC to around $140K.
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