#48 | Bearish Basis
Bearish momentum increases, but an oversold daily and monthly above support could keep the bull run alive.
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Issue #48 overview:
Bitcoin bearish momentum is increasing
The Raging Bull indicator has turned off for the first time in 2024
Oversold daily RSI could keep June monthly close strong
Special spotlight: Bitcoin closes below Bollinger Band basis
TOTAL3 has Golden Crossed, but is still at risk
Bitcoin Dominance invalidation level remains intact
Updated wave counts considering both a triangle and sharper correction
Bitcoin took a momentary plunge below $60,000 this past week, spooking the market. Based on what happens this week leading up to the monthly close will determine if Bitcoin will retest much lower prices or remain bullish and within the current range.
Last week’s candlestick closed as a Shaved Bottom. The name refers to the fact there is no lower wick and is instead shaved clean across the bottom. This is not a bottom signal, and in fact, is a bearish Japanese candlestick. However, despite the bearish candle last week, this week is currently a hammer candlestick. Hammers can be a bullish reversal candlestick, so how this week ends is critical for continuation of the uptrend or a switch to a downtrend.
As an analyst, I am beginning to lean towards the bearish scenario. As discussed in the last issue, Bitcoin could be headed into the C-wave of a sharp correction. Bearish weekly momentum via the LMACD is increasing after this latest move, with the red ticks on the histogram growing in size.
Importantly, my custom Raging Bull indicator turned off last week with the Shaved Bottom candle. The Raging Bull is designed to tell the onlooker if Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency is in a bull market. It turning off is a negative sign and further causes me to lean towards the bearish outcome lasting another month or two max.
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